Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AVS · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-0
AVS are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DWWDD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Chaves are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and AVS hold an 11.8-point power-rating edge (61.3 v 49.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.1% in the Friendlies Clubs, while AVS holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
AVS
Probability
50.1%
Model confidence
50.1%
AVS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40