Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aveley · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Aveley are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLWDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Leiston are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDWWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Aveley hold a 39.6-point power-rating edge (61.1 v 21.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 8.9% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Aveley holds the strongest overall chance at 68% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 69% BTTS chance and 77% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Aveley
Probability
67.7%
Model confidence
8.9%
Aveley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40