Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Auxerre · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Auxerre are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWWL), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Orleans are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Auxerre hold a 20.4-point power-rating edge (66.3 v 45.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.5% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Auxerre holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 62% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Auxerre
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
Auxerre has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40