Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
11%
MediumconfidenceAurora are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDWDL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Bolívar are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and bolívar hold a 11.0-point power-rating edge (55.9 v 66.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the Primera División, favouring a draw with 11.1% confidence, a 62% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
24.2%
Model confidence
11.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AuroraDDWDL
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
BolívarWLWWW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AuroraBolívar
54.8Attack76.2
54.8Defence64.3
52.4Form64.3
55.9Power66.9
1.23xG1.97