Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aurora · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Aurora are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DLWWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while ABB are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Aurora hold a 12.2-point power-rating edge (55.9 v 43.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 58.6% in the Primera División, while Aurora holds the strongest overall chance at 59% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 69% BTTS chance and 74% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Aurora
Probability
58.6%
Model confidence
58.6%
Aurora has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00