Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aubagne · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Aubagne are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDLWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Bastia are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Bastia hold an 8.3-point power-rating edge (7.0 v 15.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.2% in the Ligue 3, while Aubagne holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 45% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Aubagne
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
14.2%
Aubagne has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00