Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Atyrau are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Altay are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDDLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Atyrau hold a 6.9-point power-rating edge (44.8 v 37.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.7% in the Premier League, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 23% BTTS chance and 15% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
45.7%
Model confidence
45.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20