Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atlas · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Atlas are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLLW), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Puebla are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Atlas hold a 15.0-point power-rating edge (38.7 v 23.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.4% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Atlas holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Atlas
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Atlas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60