Atlante FCvs
Toluca
SCHEDULEDMexico · Liga MX · 8/15/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toluca · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Atlante FC are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWWDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Toluca are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Toluca hold a 16.0-point power-rating edge (51.1 v 67.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.5% in the Liga MX, while Toluca holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Toluca
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
12.5%
Toluca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80