Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atalanta · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Atalanta are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLWDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Arezzo are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWW), averaging 2.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Atalanta hold a 10.6-point power-rating edge (70.5 v 59.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.4% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Atalanta holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Atalanta
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
Atalanta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80