Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pobeda · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Astrakhan are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (WDDLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Pobeda are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WWLDD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Pobeda hold an 11.6-point power-rating edge (45.2 v 56.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.8% in the Second League - Group 1, while Pobeda holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Pobeda
Probability
48.8%
Model confidence
48.8%
Pobeda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40