Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Assisense · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Assisense are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLDLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Tupa are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDWLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Assisense hold a 9.1-point power-rating edge (50.6 v 41.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.5% in the Paulista Série B, while Assisense holds the strongest overall chance at 55% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Assisense
Probability
54.8%
Model confidence
12.5%
Assisense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40