Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Matonense · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Assisense are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DLWDD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Matonense are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDWL), averaging 3.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Matonense hold an 11.5-point power-rating edge (50.6 v 62.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.1% in the Paulista Série B, while Matonense holds the strongest overall chance at 55% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 52% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Matonense
Probability
55.4%
Model confidence
12.1%
Matonense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
GF 18 · GA 5 · avg 3.60/1.00