Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ascoli · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Ascoli are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Potenza are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 15.3 against 15.3. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.3% in the Coppa Italia, while Ascoli holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ascoli
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
12.3%
Ascoli has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80