Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lazio · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Ascoli are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LLWWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Lazio are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWWLL), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Lazio hold a 24.0-point power-rating edge (51.0 v 75.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.2% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Lazio holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lazio
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
12.2%
Lazio has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
GF 14 · GA 8 · avg 2.80/1.60