Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
8%
LowconfidenceArys are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.60 conceded, while Tobol 2 are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLD), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and arys hold a 6.5-point power-rating edge (31.6 v 25.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the 1. Division, favouring a draw with 7.9% confidence, a 76% BTTS chance and 77% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
22.5%
Model confidence
7.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArysLLLWW
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Tobol 2LLLLD
GF 8 · GA 13 · avg 1.60/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ArysTobol 2
37.3Attack47.1
25.5Defence5.9
25.5Form13.7
31.6Power25.2
2.18xG1.93