Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arsenal · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Arsenal are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDLLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Naftan are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDLWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Arsenal hold a 12.6-point power-rating edge (43.1 v 30.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 52.6% in the Premier League, while Arsenal holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Arsenal
Probability
52.6%
Model confidence
52.6%
Arsenal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20