Arsenalvs
Manchester City
SCHEDULEDEngland · Community Shield · 8/16/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arsenal · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Arsenal are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LDWWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Manchester City are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWLDW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 45.3 against 45.3. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.0% in the Community Shield, while Arsenal holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Arsenal
Probability
40.0%
Model confidence
14.0%
Arsenal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00