Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arkadag · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Arkadag are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 5.00 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Goa are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Arkadag hold a 15.8-point power-rating edge (41.8 v 26.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 16.1% in the AFC Champions League Two, while Arkadag holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 39% BTTS chance and 36% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Arkadag
Probability
54.2%
Model confidence
16.1%
Arkadag has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 25 · GA 3 · avg 5.00/0.60
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40