GGOALVIO

Bulgaria · First League · 8/17/2026, 6:15:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Arda Kardzhali · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0

Mediumconfidence

Arda Kardzhali are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLWDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Lokomotiv Sofia are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDLDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Arda Kardzhali hold a 26.5-point power-rating edge (60.3 v 33.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.7% in the First League, while Arda Kardzhali holds the strongest overall chance at 55% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 42% BTTS chance and 39% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Arda Kardzhali

Probability

54.6%

Model confidence

14.7%

Arda Kardzhali has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Arda KardzhaliWLWDW

GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Lokomotiv SofiaLDLDL

GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00

BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Arda KardzhaliLokomotiv Sofia
41.7Attack33.3
75.0Defence41.7
58.3Form16.7
60.3Power33.8
1.52xG0.74
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