Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Montrose · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Arbroath are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LLWWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Montrose are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLD), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Montrose hold a 22.8-point power-rating edge (45.2 v 68.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.4% in the League Cup, while Montrose holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 45% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Montrose
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
Montrose has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80