Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arbroath · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Arbroath are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WLDLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Brechin are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLLWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Arbroath hold a 24.9-point power-rating edge (40.3 v 15.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.8% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Arbroath holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 66% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Arbroath
Probability
47.1%
Model confidence
10.8%
Arbroath has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40