Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ararat · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Ararat are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.80 conceded, while Van are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWWL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Ararat hold a 7.5-point power-rating edge (52.2 v 44.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.2% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Ararat holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 52% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ararat
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
43.2%
Ararat has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 14 · avg 1.20/2.80
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00