Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Estrela · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Alverca are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Estrela are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DWWDW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Estrela hold a 30.0-point power-rating edge (15.3 v 45.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.2% in the Primeira Liga, while Estrela holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 52% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Estrela
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
13.2%
Estrela has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00