Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alverca · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Alverca are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Estoril are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WLDDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Estoril hold a 15.4-point power-rating edge (26.7 v 42.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 33.7% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Alverca holds the strongest overall chance at 34% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Alverca
Probability
33.7%
Model confidence
33.7%
Alverca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20