Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Neftchi · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Aluminij are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLWDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Neftchi are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLWDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Neftchi hold a 25.8-point power-rating edge (35.7 v 61.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.6% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Neftchi holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Neftchi
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
Neftchi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00