Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aktobe · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Altay are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Aktobe are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Aktobe hold a 16.2-point power-rating edge (37.9 v 54.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 16.2% in the Premier League, while Aktobe holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 39% BTTS chance and 34% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Aktobe
Probability
52.4%
Model confidence
16.2%
Aktobe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00