Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alga · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Alga are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WWDDW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Toktogul are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWWLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Alga hold a 25.8-point power-rating edge (67.5 v 41.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 73.2% in the Premier League, while Alga holds the strongest overall chance at 73% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 38% BTTS chance and 51% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Alga
Probability
73.2%
Model confidence
73.2%
Alga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60