Alfreton Townvs
Derby
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies Clubs · 7/17/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Derby · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Alfreton Town are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDLDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Derby are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Derby hold an 18.2-point power-rating edge (26.1 v 44.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.2% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Derby holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 68% BTTS chance and 68% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Derby
Probability
41.2%
Model confidence
41.2%
Derby has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60