Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alcorcon · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Alcorcon are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWLLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Getafe II are 2W-2D-0L in their last 4 (DWDW), averaging 1.25 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 9 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Getafe II hold a 14.9-point power-rating edge (53.1 v 68.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.4% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Alcorcon holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 55% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Alcorcon
Probability
36.4%
Model confidence
36.4%
Alcorcon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.25/0.50