Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Novara · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Alcione are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WDLLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Novara are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Novara hold a 37.7-point power-rating edge (15.3 v 53.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.1% in the Coppa Italia Serie C, while Novara holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Novara
Probability
41.0%
Model confidence
13.1%
Novara has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80