Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penarol · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Albion FC are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLDWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Penarol are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Penarol hold an 11.6-point power-rating edge (54.3 v 65.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.5% in the Primera División, while Penarol holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 41% BTTS chance and 33% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Penarol
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
Penarol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00