Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Alaves are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWWDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Eibar are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Eibar hold a 9.5-point power-rating edge (57.4 v 67.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.3% in the Friendlies Clubs, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 40% BTTS chance and 31% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
36.3%
Model confidence
36.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60