Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Al-Nassr are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Almeria are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLWLD), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Almeria hold a 19.5-point power-rating edge (41.9 v 61.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.3% in the Friendlies Clubs, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 43% BTTS chance and 35% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
35.3%
Model confidence
35.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00