Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Nassr · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-1
Al-Nassr are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Al-Fateh are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDWLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Al-Nassr hold a 27.5-point power-rating edge (77.0 v 49.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 9.0% in the Pro League, while Al-Nassr holds the strongest overall chance at 74% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 66% BTTS chance and 79% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Al-Nassr
Probability
73.8%
Model confidence
9.0%
Al-Nassr has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40