Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Twente · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2
Ajax are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WLDDW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Twente are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Twente hold a 25.1-point power-rating edge (34.7 v 59.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.9% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Twente holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 69% BTTS chance and 70% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Twente
Probability
43.9%
Model confidence
43.9%
Twente has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20