Ajaxvs
Heerenveen
SCHEDULEDNetherlands · Eredivisie · 8/16/2026, 2:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ajax · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Ajax are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWD), averaging 2.60 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Heerenveen are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLDLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Ajax hold an 8.3-point power-rating edge (88.7 v 80.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.6% in the Eredivisie, while Ajax holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 55% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ajax
Probability
44.8%
Model confidence
12.6%
Ajax has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 3 · avg 2.60/0.60
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00