Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Burnley · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Ajax are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Burnley are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDLDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Burnley hold a 10.6-point power-rating edge (34.7 v 45.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.7% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Burnley holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 69% BTTS chance and 68% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Burnley
Probability
37.7%
Model confidence
37.7%
Burnley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00