Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arkadag · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Ahal are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWD), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.20 conceded, while Arkadag are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWD), averaging 3.80 scored and 0.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Arkadag hold a 20.0-point power-rating edge (69.8 v 89.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.8% in the Ýokary Liga, while Arkadag holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 42% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Arkadag
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Arkadag has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 1 · avg 2.20/0.20
GF 19 · GA 1 · avg 3.80/0.20