Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ahal · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 3-0
Ahal are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Aşgabat are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LLWWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Ahal hold a 39.9-point power-rating edge (69.8 v 29.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 86.4% in the Ýokary Liga, while Ahal holds the strongest overall chance at 86% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 41% BTTS chance and 72% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ahal
Probability
86.4%
Model confidence
86.4%
Ahal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20