Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aşgabat · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Aşgabat are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WWLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Merw are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLDW), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Aşgabat hold a 2.9-point power-rating edge (29.9 v 27.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.6% in the Ýokary Liga, while Aşgabat holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 68% BTTS chance and 69% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Aşgabat
Probability
50.6%
Model confidence
50.6%
Aşgabat has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 5 · GA 14 · avg 1.00/2.80