Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arkadag · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 0-4
Aşgabat are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Arkadag are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 5.20 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Arkadag hold a 59.9-point power-rating edge (29.9 v 89.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-4 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.7% in the Ýokary Liga, while Arkadag holds the strongest overall chance at 91% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 46% BTTS chance and 81% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Arkadag
Probability
90.6%
Model confidence
13.7%
Arkadag has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 26 · GA 3 · avg 5.20/0.60