Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aşgabat · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Aşgabat are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLW), averaging 2.20 scored and 3.40 conceded, while Şagadam are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (DLLLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Şagadam hold an 8.1-point power-rating edge (29.9 v 38.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.2% in the Ýokary Liga, while Aşgabat holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 45% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Aşgabat
Probability
35.6%
Model confidence
14.2%
Aşgabat has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 17 · avg 2.20/3.40
GF 2 · GA 10 · avg 0.40/2.00