Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
ABC · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
ABC are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Sousa are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and ABC hold a 28.7-point power-rating edge (68.7 v 40.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 60.6% in the Serie D, while ABC holds the strongest overall chance at 61% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 20% BTTS chance and 23% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
ABC
Probability
60.6%
Model confidence
60.6%
ABC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60